An Estimation of the Entomological Inoculation Rate for Ifakara: A Semi-Urban Area in a Region of Intense Malaria Transmission in Tanzania.

An entomological study on vectors of malaria and their relative contribution to Plasmodium falciparum transmission in the semi-urban area of Ifakara, south-eastern Tanzania, was conducted. A total of 32 houses were randomly sampled from the area and light trap catches (LTC) performed in one room in each house every 2 weeks for 1 year. A total of 147 448 mosquitoes were caught from 789 LTC; 26 134 Anopheles gambiae s.l., 615 A. funestus, 718 other anophelines and 119 981 culicines. More than 60% of the total A. gambiae s.l. were found in five (0.6%) LTCs, with a maximum of 5889 caught in a single trap. Of 505 A. gambiae s.l. speciated by polymerase chain reaction, 91.5% were found to be A. arabiensis. Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests were performed on 10 108 anopheles mosquitoes and 39 (0.38%) were positive. Entomological inoculation rate (EIR) estimates were generated using a standard method and an alternative method that allows the calculation of confidence intervals based on a negative binomial distribution of sporozoite positive mosquitoes. Overall EIR estimates were similar; 31 vs. 29 [95% confidence interval (CI): 19, 44] infectious bites per annum, respectively. The EIR ranged from 4 (95% CI: 1, 17) in the cool season to 108 (95% CI: 69, 170) in the wet season and from 54 (95% CI: 30, 97) in the east of the town to 15 (95% CI: 8, 30) in the town centre. These estimates show large variations over short distances in time and space. They are all markedly lower than those reported from nearby rural areas and for other parts of Tanzania

Network of Earthquakes and Recurrences Therein

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of earthquakes is constructed, which is time ordered and with links between the more correlated ones. Data pertaining to the California region has been used in the study. Recurrences to earthquakes are identified employing correlation thresholds to demarcate the most meaningful ones in each cluster. The distribution of recurrence lengths and recurrence times are analyzed subsequently to extract information about the complex dynamics. We find that the unimodal feature of recurrence lengths helps to associate typical rupture lengths with different magnitude earthquakes. The out-degree of the network shows a hub structure rooted on the large magnitude earthquakes. In-degree distribution is seen to be dependent on the density of events in the neighborhood. Power laws are also obtained with recurrence time distribution agreeing with the Omori law.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figure

Light echoes reveal an unexpectedly cool Eta Carinae during its 19th-century Great Eruption

Eta Carinae (Eta Car) is one of the most massive binary stars in the Milky Way. It became the second-brightest star in the sky during its mid-19th century "Great Eruption," but then faded from view (with only naked-eye estimates of brightness). Its eruption is unique among known astronomical transients in that it exceeded the Eddington luminosity limit for 10 years. Because it is only 2.3 kpc away, spatially resolved studies of the nebula have constrained the ejected mass and velocity, indicating that in its 19th century eruption, Eta Car ejected more than 10 M_solar in an event that had 10% of the energy of a typical core-collapse supernova without destroying the star. Here we report the discovery of light echoes of Eta Carinae which appear to be from the 1838-1858 Great Eruption. Spectra of these light echoes show only absorption lines, which are blueshifted by -210 km/s, in good agreement with predicted expansion speeds. The light-echo spectra correlate best with those of G2-G5 supergiant spectra, which have effective temperatures of ~5000 K. In contrast to the class of extragalactic outbursts assumed to be analogs of Eta Car's Great Eruption, the effective temperature of its outburst is significantly cooler than allowed by standard opaque wind models. This indicates that other physical mechanisms like an energetic blast wave may have triggered and influenced the eruption.Comment: Accepted for publication by Nature; 4 pages, 4 figures, SI: 6 pages, 3 figures, 5 table

Interhospital Transfers Among Medicare Beneficiaries Admitted for Acute Myocardial Infarction at Nonrevascularization Hospitals

Background—Patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) who are admitted to hospitals without coronary revascularization are frequently transferred to hospitals with this capability, yet we know little about the basis for how such revascularization hospitals are selected. Methods and Results—We examined interhospital transfer patterns in 71 336 AMI patients admitted to hospitals without revascularization capabilities in the 2006 Medicare claims using network analysis and regression models. A total of 31 607 (44.3%) AMI patients were transferred from 1684 nonrevascularization hospitals to 1104 revascularization hospitals. Median time to transfer was 2 days. Median transfer distance was 26.7 miles, with 96.1% within 100 miles. In 45.8% of cases, patients bypassed a closer hospital to go to a farther hospital that had a better 30-day risk standardized mortality rates. However, in 36.8% of cases, another revascularization hospital with lower 30-day risk-standardized mortality was actually closer to the original admitting nonrevascularization hospital than the observed transfer destination. Adjusted regression models demonstrated that shorter transfer distances were more common than transfers to the hospitals with lowest 30-day mortality rates. Simulations suggest that an optimized system that prioritized the transfer of AMI patients to a nearby hospital with the lowest 30-day mortality rate might produce clinically meaningful reductions in mortality. Conclusions—More than 40% of AMI patients admitted to nonrevascularization hospitals are transferred to revascular- ization hospitals. Many patients are not directed to nearby hospitals with the lowest 30-day risk-standardized mortality, and this may represent an opportunity for improvement. (Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes. 2010;3:468-475.)This work was supported by 1K08HL091249-01 from the NIH/ NHLBI and used the Measurement Core of the Michigan Diabetes Research and Training Center (NIH/NIDDK, P60DK-20572). This project was also funded in part under a grant from the Pennsylvania Department of Health, which specifically disclaims responsibility for any analyses, interpretations, or conclusions. The funders were not involved in study design, interpretation, or the decision to publish.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78005/1/10.I.Circ.Outcomes.pd

Sports teams as complex adaptive systems: manipulating player numbers shapes behaviours during football small-sided games

Small-sided and conditioned games (SSCGs) in sport have been modelled as complex adaptive systems. Research has shown that the relative space per player (RSP) formulated in SSCGs can impact on emergent tactical behaviours. In this study we adopted a systems orientation to analyse how different RSP values, obtained through manipulations of player numbers, influenced four measures of interpersonal coordination observed during performance in SSCGs. For this purpose we calculated positional data (GPS 15 Hz) from ten U-15 football players performing in three SSCGs varying in player numbers (3v3, 4v4 and 5v5). Key measures of SSCG system behaviours included values of (1) players’ dispersion, (2) teams’ separateness, (3) coupling strength and time delays between participants’ emerging movements, respectively. Results showed that values of participants’ dispersion increased, but the teams’ separateness remained identical across treatments. Coupling strength and time delay also showed consistent values across SSCGs. These results exemplified how complex adaptive systems, like football teams, can harness inherent degeneracy to maintain similar team spatial–temporal relations with opponents through changes in inter-individual coordination modes (i.e., players’ dispersion). The results imply that different team behaviours might emerge at different ratios of field dimension/player numbers. Therefore, sport pedagogists should carefully evaluate the effects of changing RSP in SSCGs as a way of promoting increased or decreased pressure on players

Numerical relations and skill level constrain co-adaptive behaviors of agents in sports teams

Similar to other complex systems in nature (e.g., a hunting pack, flocks of birds), sports teams have been modeled as social neurobiological systems in which interpersonal coordination tendencies of agents underpin team swarming behaviors. Swarming is seen as the result of agent co-adaptation to ecological constraints of performance environments by collectively perceiving specific possibilities for action (affordances for self and shared affordances). A major principle of invasion team sports assumed to promote effective performance is to outnumber the opposition (creation of numerical overloads) during different performance phases (attack and defense) in spatial regions adjacent to the ball. Such performance principles are assimilated by system agents through manipulation of numerical relations between teams during training in order to create artificially asymmetrical performance contexts to simulate overloaded and underloaded situations. Here we evaluated effects of different numerical relations differentiated by agent skill level, examining emergent inter-individual, intra- and inter-team coordination. Groups of association football players (national - NLP and regional-level - RLP) participated in small-sided and conditioned games in which numerical relations between system agents were manipulated (5v5, 5v4 and 5v3). Typical grouping tendencies in sports teams (major ranges, stretch indices, distances of team centers to goals and distances between the teams' opposing line-forces in specific team sectors) were recorded by plotting positional coordinates of individual agents through continuous GPS tracking. Results showed that creation of numerical asymmetries during training constrained agents' individual dominant regions, the underloaded teams' compactness and each team's relative position on-field, as well as distances between specific team sectors. We also observed how skill level impacted individual and team coordination tendencies. Data revealed emergence of co-adaptive behaviors between interacting neurobiological social system agents in the context of sport performance. Such observations have broader implications for training design involving manipulations of numerical relations between interacting members of social collectives

Craniometric Data Supports Demic Diffusion Model for the Spread of Agriculture into Europe

BACKGROUND:The spread of agriculture into Europe and the ancestry of the first European farmers have been subjects of debate and controversy among geneticists, archaeologists, linguists and anthropologists. Debates have centred on the extent to which the transition was associated with the active migration of people as opposed to the diffusion of cultural practices. Recent studies have shown that patterns of human cranial shape variation can be employed as a reliable proxy for the neutral genetic relationships of human populations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Here, we employ measurements of Mesolithic (hunter-gatherers) and Neolithic (farmers) crania from Southwest Asia and Europe to test several alternative population dispersal and hunter-farmer gene-flow models. We base our alternative hypothetical models on a null evolutionary model of isolation-by-geographic and temporal distance. Partial Mantel tests were used to assess the congruence between craniometric distance and each of the geographic model matrices, while controlling for temporal distance. Our results demonstrate that the craniometric data fit a model of continuous dispersal of people (and their genes) from Southwest Asia to Europe significantly better than a null model of cultural diffusion. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Therefore, this study does not support the assertion that farming in Europe solely involved the adoption of technologies and ideas from Southwest Asia by indigenous Mesolithic hunter-gatherers. Moreover, the results highlight the utility of craniometric data for assessing patterns of past population dispersal and gene flow

Pan-cancer analysis of whole genomes

Cancer is driven by genetic change, and the advent of massively parallel sequencing has enabled systematic documentation of this variation at the whole-genome scale(1-3). Here we report the integrative analysis of 2,658 whole-cancer genomes and their matching normal tissues across 38 tumour types from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We describe the generation of the PCAWG resource, facilitated by international data sharing using compute clouds. On average, cancer genomes contained 4-5 driver mutations when combining coding and non-coding genomic elements; however, in around 5% of cases no drivers were identified, suggesting that cancer driver discovery is not yet complete. Chromothripsis, in which many clustered structural variants arise in a single catastrophic event, is frequently an early event in tumour evolution; in acral melanoma, for example, these events precede most somatic point mutations and affect several cancer-associated genes simultaneously. Cancers with abnormal telomere maintenance often originate from tissues with low replicative activity and show several mechanisms of preventing telomere attrition to critical levels. Common and rare germline variants affect patterns of somatic mutation, including point mutations, structural variants and somatic retrotransposition. A collection of papers from the PCAWG Consortium describes non-coding mutations that drive cancer beyond those in the TERT promoter(4); identifies new signatures of mutational processes that cause base substitutions, small insertions and deletions and structural variation(5,6); analyses timings and patterns of tumour evolution(7); describes the diverse transcriptional consequences of somatic mutation on splicing, expression levels, fusion genes and promoter activity(8,9); and evaluates a range of more-specialized features of cancer genomes(8,10-18).Peer reviewe